![]() Governments have a key role to play in reducing uncertainty by sending strong and consistent signals about their climate ambitions and implementing specific policies to fulfil these long-term goals. The biggest source of demand variance comes from the uncertainty surrounding announced and expected climate ambitions – in other words, whether clean energy deployment and resulting mineral demand follows STEPS or SDS trajectories. Despite the promise of massive demand growth, mining and processing companies may be reluctant to commit large-scale investment given the wide range of possible demand trajectories. ![]() These large uncertainties around possible futures may act as a factor that hampers mining and processing companies’ investment decisions, which could in turn cause supply-demand imbalances in the years ahead. We explore the impacts of varying technology evolution trends through 11 alternative cases under both the STEPS and SDS, in addition to our base case. Projected mineral demand is highly dependent on the stringency of climate policies (reflected in the difference between the STEPS and SDS) as well as potential technology development pathways such as different solar PV module types or EV battery chemistries.
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